BUSA421 Data Mining

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BUSA421 Data Mining

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BUSA421 Data Mining

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Course Code: BUSA421
University: Texas A And M University

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Country: United States

Question:

B&R Oil and Gas records a variety of drilling performance measures. To investigate the importance of the slant drilling technique, the Cotton Valley data posted in the assignment course content area shows the field drilled, slant rate differential, core fracture ratio (including injection points), and percentage of successful production drilling (Successful % Production Completion – Online) for a random sample of 16 wells drilled in the Cotton Valley Zone as part of the 2013 drilling projects.
Requirements:

Develop the estimated regression equation that could be used to predict the percentage of successful drilling completions, given the slant differential. Explain what proportion of the variable  in the sample values to the proportion of successful drilling projects does this model explain?
Develop the estimated regression equation that could be used to predict the percentage of  successful drilling completions, given the core fracture ratio. What proportion of the variable in the sample values to the proportion of successful drilling projects does this model explain? Provide detail to your explanation.
Develop the estimated regression equation that could be used to predict the percentage of  successful drilling completions, given the slant differential and the core fracture ratio. What  proportion of the variable in the sample values to the proportion of successful drilling projects does this model explain? Provide detail to your explanation.
The slant differential for another well in the Cotton Valley Zone drilled during 2013 was 6.2, with a core fracture ratio of 0.036. Use the estimated regression equation developed in part c to predict a successful drilling completion during that year. Explain what the result means.
Provide the residual plots for the model developed in part c?

Follow the examples as provided in the discussion/lecture videos, material documents, and associated analyst guides. These should provide similar approaches to the requirements noted in this assignment. Additionally, analyst guides will be provided to support the specific requirements for this assignment.

Answer:

The tables below show the output for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Slant Rate Differential for a random sample of 16 wells drilled in the Cotton Valley Zone.
Table 1: Model Coefficients for Regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Slant Rate Differential

Coefficients

Intercept

-58.7703125

Slant Rate Differential

16.390625

Table 2: Regression Statistics for regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Slant Rate Differential

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.759692807

R Square

0.577133161

Adjusted R Square

0.546928387

Standard Error

15.87319309

Observations

16

The output provided in Table 1: Model Coefficients for Regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Slant Rate Differential indicate that the regression equation for regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Slant Rate Differential can be expressed as follows: (to 4.s.f)
The output of Table 2: Regression Statistics for regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Slant Rate Differential shows the value of the Adjusted R Square = 0.5469 (to 4.s.f). The R2 is linear regression measure that gives the value of the percentage of the variance in the output variable that is explained by the input variable(s) (Galit, Peter, Inbal, Patel, & Kenneth, 2018; Jorge, Angela, & Edson, 2013). It is hence appropriate in the determination of the proportion of the variable in the sample observations (values) to the proportion of successful drilling projects explained by a model.
This implies that the regression equation given above for the relationship between the Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Slant Rate Differential explains 54.69% of the successful drilling projects in the Cotton Valley Zone for the year 2013.
Question b
The tables below show the output for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Core Fracture Ratio for a random sample of 16 wells drilled in the Cotton Valley Zone.
Table 3: Model Coefficients for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Core Fracture Ratio

Coefficients

Intercept

97.53825386

Core Fracture Ratio

-1600.490884

Table 4: Regression Statistics for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Core Fracture Ratio

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.661738595

R Square

0.437897968

Adjusted R Square

0.397747823

Standard Error

18.30079947

Observations

16

The output provided in Table 3: Model Coefficients for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Core Fracture Ratio indicate that the regression equation for regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Core Fracture Ratio can be expressed as follows: (to 2 decimal places)
The output of Table 4: Regression Statistics for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Core Fracture Ratio shows the value of the Adjusted R Square = 0.3978 (to 4.s.f). This implies that the regression equation given above for the relationship between the Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and Core Fracture Ratio explains 39.78% of the successful drilling projects in the Cotton Valley Zone for the year 2013.
Question c
The tables below show the output for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and, Slant Rate Differential and Core Fracture Ratio for a random sample of 16 wells drilled in the Cotton Valley Zone.
Table 5: Model Coefficients for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and, Slant Rate Differential and Core Fracture Ratio

Coefficients

Intercept

-5.763283816

Slant Rate Differential

12.94935632

Core Fracture Ratio

-1083.787956

Table 6: Regression Statistics for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and, Slant Rate Differential and Core Fracture Ratio

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.867461188

R Square

0.752488913

Adjusted R Square

0.714410284

Standard Error

12.60236794

Observations

16

The output provided in Table 5: Model Coefficients for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and, Slant Rate Differential and Core Fracture Ratio indicate that the regression equation for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and, Slant Rate Differential and Core Fracture Ratio can be expressed as follows: (to 2 decimal places)
The output of Table 6: Regression Statistics for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and, Slant Rate Differential and Core Fracture Ratio shows the value of the Adjusted R Square = 0.7144 (to 4.s.f). This implies that the regression equation given above for the relationship between the Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and, Slant Rate Differential and Core Fracture Ratio explains 71.44% of the successful drilling projects in the Cotton Valley Zone for the year 2013.
Question d
Using the equation above from solution to Question c for the regression equation for the regression of Percentage Successful Drilling Completion and, Slant Rate Differential and Core Fracture Ratio. And taking Slate Ratio Differential = 6.2 and Core Fraction Ratio = 0.036, then the estimate for the Percentage Successful Drilling Completion will be given by:
Question e
The residual plots for the model in the solution for Question c, are as given below;

Figure 1: Slant Rate Differential Residual Plot

Figure 2: Core Fracture Ratio Residual Plot
References
Galit, S., Peter, B. C., Inbal, Y., Patel, N. R., & Kenneth, L. C. (2018). Data Mining for Business Analytics (1st ed.). New Delhi: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Jorge, A. A., Angela, A., & Edson, Z. M. (2013). Robust Linear Regression Models: Use of Stable Distribution for the Response Data. Open Journal of Statistics, 3, 3-5.

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